Can Dems take the house in 2025?
THE TIDE IS TURNING!
FLASH: Trump withdraws NY Rep Stefanik from UN Ambassador. The races in Florida are pulling ahead for Dems. We can make the House 50-50! Volunteer for Gay or Josh in the final day!
Special elections for 2 US House seats in FL are being held April 1st. Another in NY in June.
Long shots? Yes…
Impossible? NO!
Gay Valimont FL District 1
Former Representative Matt Gaetz resigned during the previous Congress after winning re-election but chose not to assume his seat in the 119th Congress.
Large mail in ballot favors Dems early. In a district with a Cook PVI of R+19, you’d normally expect Republicans to dominate mail-in voting by a much wider margin. A 4.9-point gap at that stage was unexpectedly narrow, suggesting high engagement by Democrats, likely due to Valimont’s media presence and fundraising.
Josh Weil FL District 6
Representative Michael Waltz resigned on January 20, 2025, to become the United States National Security Advisor.
Political analysts generally favor Republican Randy Fine to win, given the district’s GOP lean. However, Weil’s financial advantage and grassroots energy have turned what should be a safe Republican seat into a competitive contest. If turnout among younger voters, independents, and less consistent voters is unusually high—and if Weil’s messaging continues to resonate—it’s not impossible for him to pull off a surprise.
